A Portfolio-analysis Tool for Missile Defense (PAT-MD): Methodology and User's Manual

RAND's Portfolio Analysis Tool for Missile Defense (PAT-MD) is a tool built using Microsoft EXCEL to support high-level discussion and decision-making in the Missile Defense Agency (MDA) by providing summary portfolio-style characterizations of investment options. These characterizations of alternative investment programs may involve: projected capabilities in different missions such as defense of the homeland from long-range missile attacks; the balance of emphasis across missions; the managing of risks; and economic considerations such as relative cost effectiveness. The portfolio-style depiction attempts to provide a holistic top-level view across all of these considerations, and to facilitate discussion of tradeoffs and adjustments of program. Equally important, PAT-MD and a companion tool make it possible to "zoom" to higher levels of detail so as to understand the basis of high-level characterizations and how they would change if assumptions or priorities were changed. The following paragraphs discuss both high-level characterizations and zooms.