Futuring: The Exploration of the FutureWorld Future Society, 2004 - 313 pages |
Contents
Explorers of the Future | 1 |
Inventing the Future | 4 |
Gaining Power Over the Future | 5 |
Productive Dreaming | 6 |
Setting Out on Our Expedition | 7 |
The Great Transformation | 9 |
Our Experience of Change | 10 |
Hyperchange | 11 |
Averting Catastrophes | 112 |
The Terrorist Attacks of September 112001 | 113 |
Could the Attacks Have Been Anticipated? | 114 |
Future Catastrophes | 116 |
Eight Future Benestrophes | 117 |
A Century of Wild Cards? | 120 |
Inventing the Future | 122 |
The Role of Chance in Creativity | 124 |
Exploring the Transformation | 13 |
Three Technological Revolutions | 14 |
The Cybernetic Revolution | 17 |
Future Revolutions | 19 |
But Where Are We Going? | 20 |
Six Supertrends Shaping the Future | 22 |
The Six Supertrends | 23 |
Will the Supertrends Reverse? | 29 |
Higher Living Standards | 30 |
Work and Education | 32 |
A MoreCrowded World | 33 |
A Devastated Environment | 34 |
Shaping Our Future | 35 |
Summary | 36 |
Understanding Change | 37 |
Watching Trends | 39 |
Our Unknown World | 41 |
Trends That Reverse | 43 |
Patterns of Change | 45 |
Stages in Technology and Society | 46 |
Change and Stability | 48 |
Systems Chance and Chaos | 49 |
The Importance of the Systems Approach | 50 |
A World of Interacting Systems | 51 |
The Enormous Potential of Chance Events | 54 |
How Chance Influences Our Lives | 55 |
The Influence of Chaos | 58 |
The Implications of Chaos Research | 60 |
The Infinitude of Our Possible Futures | 62 |
Summary | 63 |
Futuring Methods | 65 |
Consulting Experts | 66 |
Very Serious Games | 67 |
Models and Simulations | 70 |
Visioning | 72 |
Easy Ways to Use the Methods | 75 |
An Overview of Futuring Methods | 78 |
Knowing the World Around Us | 80 |
Scanning the World Around Us | 81 |
Classifying Trends | 82 |
Trend Extrapolation | 86 |
Causes and Impacts | 88 |
How Might a Trend Affect Us? | 89 |
A SurpriseFree Future | 91 |
Using Scenarios | 93 |
Scenarios for Population and Economics | 96 |
Making Choices and Forecasts | 97 |
Forecasting and Backcasting | 100 |
Other Uses of Backcasting | 102 |
Personal Backcasting | 104 |
Scenarios for Careers | 105 |
The Wild Cards in Our Future | 108 |
Future Wild Cards | 110 |
The Science of Discovery | 127 |
Basic Tools for Shaping the Future | 128 |
Mapping Our Ideas | 130 |
Planning a Pleasant Evening | 131 |
Progress in Futuring | 132 |
The Past as a Guide to the Future | 134 |
Practical Lessons from Financial History | 137 |
Using History in Decision Making | 139 |
Creating a Better Future | 141 |
The Recent Past as a Guide | 142 |
The Value of the Long View | 145 |
Predicting the Future | 147 |
Follies of Forecasters | 148 |
Miracles That Were Postponed | 153 |
A Stealth Technology | 156 |
Todays World as Envisioned a Century Ago | 161 |
Todays World as Envisioned a Generation Ago | 163 |
Coming to Judgment | 164 |
Progress in Forecasting | 165 |
How the Future Became What It Used to Be | 169 |
The Idea of Progress | 170 |
Science and the Industrial Revolution | 173 |
The Triumph of the Doctrine of Progress | 174 |
Science Fiction and Utopias | 175 |
The Collapse of Optimism | 178 |
The Impact of World War I | 181 |
The Death of Progress? | 183 |
The Futurist Revolution | 186 |
Can France Have a Future? | 187 |
Planning Frances Future | 189 |
De Jouvenels Influence | 191 |
The Rise of American Futurism | 193 |
The RAND Corporations Influence | 196 |
The Space Age Begins | 198 |
Futurist Groups Form | 201 |
Improving Our Futures | 203 |
Challenging Fatalism | 204 |
The Knowability of the Future | 206 |
The Improvability of Our Future | 209 |
The Urgency of the Future | 211 |
The Secret Ingredient of Success | 213 |
Responsibility for the Future | 215 |
Future Generations | 217 |
A Pledge to Future Generations | 219 |
Helping Young People | 221 |
What We Can Do | 224 |
Humanitys New Potential | 226 |
A Fellowship of Explorers | 229 |
Notes | 231 |
Bibliography | 249 |
Glossary | 291 |
301 | |
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Common terms and phrases
achieve ahead American anticipate atomic bombs Backcasting become better Bibliography century Cetron chance Chapter complex continue create creative cultural decisions Delphi Delphi method develop discussed economic Edward Cornish environment example experience explorers forecasts foresight future events futures studies Futurist global goal growth happen Herman Kahn human ideas identify imagination important improve increasing Industrial Institute Internet investors issues Jouvenel knowledge leaders lives look ment methods millions nations occur offers organizations past percent Pickett's charge planning population possible potential predict prepare president problems produce professor recognize relevance tree Revolution scenarios scholars scientists social Soviet Soviet Union strategies success supertrends techniques technological progress terrorist things tion today's trends understand University videophone vision Warren Wagar Wendell Bell wild cards World Future Society World War II York